The impacts of weather forecasts on military operations a system for conducting quantitative near-real time analyses
Butler, Mark D.
Wash, Carlyle H.
MetadataShow full item record
We have developed, tested, and operationally implemented a web based system for collecting and analyzing in nearreal time weather forecast and observational data to assess: (a) the performance of forecasts; and (b) the operational impacts of forecasts. A major goal of the system is to quantify the impacts of weather forecasts on the planning, execution, and outcomes of military operations. Our tests and implementation were focused on the METOC support provided by Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography Detachment (NPMOD) Fallon to Naval Strike and Air Warfare Center (NSAWC) operations at Naval Air Station Fallon. Data are collected by NPMOD Fallon and entered via a web interface into a database at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) where the data are analyzed and results are reported in near-real time. The results include quantitative assessments of: (1) forecasts used in planning NSAWC missions; (2) changes made during mission planning in response to forecasted weather; (3) deviations from mission plans that occurred in response to weather conditions actually encountered; (4) positive and negative impacts on missions due to forecasts; (5) METOC Tactical Decision Aid forecast accuracy and mission impacts; and (6) forecast performance and mission impacts with respect to specific weather factors.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Darnell, Karen M. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2006-03);Accurate weather forecasts are vital to air combat operations. Quantitative assessments of forecasts and their operational impacts are essential to improving weather support for war fighters. We adapted an existing U.S. ...
Callahan, Jeremy (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2006-09);We have developed metrics of the performance and operational impacts of METOC support to strike operations conducted on operational aircraft carriers (CVs). Our goal was to assess that support and make recommendations on ...
DeHart, Jeremy A. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2011-03);Skillful long-range forecasts (LRFs; leads times of several weeks or longer) are a critical component of mission planning for both military and nonmilitary operations. This is especially true for countries that are ...