Single-station assessments of the synoptic-scale forcing on the marine atmospheric boundary layer
Gleason, John Patrick
Schacher, Gordon E.
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Knowledge of the large-scale vertical velocity is required to predict the evolution of the atmospheric planetary boundary layer (APBL). Since naval operations are often conducted in data sparse regions, single-station assessments of the vertical velocity are necessary. Data to evaluate such assessments were obtained from rawinsondes taken at San Nicolas Island, California. Vertical velocity estimates obtained by vertical integration of the moisture budget equation (Q-method) and by the adiabatic method were used to initialize an APBL 24-h our prediction model. RMS error statistics on predicted inversion height, potential temperature, and specific humidity were computed for the forecasts and compared to the RMS errors of a persistence forecast. Calculation of the vertical velocity by the Q-11 method showed the most promise. However, no single-station assessment method improved on the persistence forecasts.
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