Toward a fifteen battlegroup navy: a supply side view and implications for force composition and personnel quality
Lepick, Mark H.
Yarosh, Cynthia D.
Elster, Richard S.
Thomas, George W.
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This thesis develops a methodology for addressing the personnel supplies necessary to meet the manpower requirements of the 15 battlegroup Navy. The methodology utilizes cross-sectional data, a Markov chain transitional flow model, projections of future Navy enlisted force levels, and economic and demographic conditions to derive required annual inputs and the numbers of qualified individuals available to satisfy the input requirements. The effects of varied retention rates and the values of selected economic and policy related variables are analyzed in terms of input numbers required and policy implications. Analysis reveals that, though sufficient numbers of input personnel are available, the overall quality of these individuals may be inadequate to meet the increasingly technical demands of the 1980 's. Further, although the outlook is favorable for reducing the present petty officer shortfall by 1990, the by-paygrade profile of petty officers may reveal significant imbalances between junior and senior grades.
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