A descriptive analysis of first term attrition from U.S. Naval ships

Abstract

This thesis was conducted to analyze certain factors affecting first-term attrition from U.S. Naval ships. The Survival Tracking File (STF) was used as the primary data source, and from it files were constructed that permitted three areas of study. First, the overall cohort of a year's worth of enlistees was examined. The survival curve for the cohort was generated and individual monthly cohorts were examined for attrition patterns. Secondly, overall attrition percentages were calculated for individual ships and for classes of ships and these attrition percentages were then examined for differences using statistical techniques. An ANOVA model using transformed data proved accurate in explaining attrition variance. Lastly, a comparison between attrition per month and underway hours per month was made for classes of ships and for individual ships of three specific classes. A rough relationship was observed, between peaks of high underway hours and peaks of attrition. In looking at individual aircraft carriers, the attrition percentage seemed to be inversely proportional to underway hours per month. Several of these findings warrant further investigation so that the Navy may more fully understand its attrition problem and thereby take steps to alleviate it.