Analysis of unit breakpoints in land combat
Abstract
The thesis considers battle termination (a unit reaching
its so-called "breakpoint") in ground combat as a rational
decision process. A commander's decision to break contact
with an enemy force and withdraw from the battlefield is
analyzed for company-size infantry units. Two approaches
for modelling a commander's decision process to terminate an
engagement are presented. The first approach is based on
extrapolation of observations on past battle history into
the future with no assumption about combat dynamics. The
second is based on the assumption of known Lanchaster-type
combat dynamics (possibly with unknown parameters to be
estimated) and uses Kalman filtering. Possible applications
of such models are discussed, and related areas for future study are recommended.