Analysis of the variable behavior manifested in all Navy/Marine major aircraft accident rates

Abstract

All Navy/Marine monthly aircraft accident rates exhibit a behavior of marked variability which cannot be attributed solely to weather or other natural phenomena. Variable measures construed as time dependent were obtained for all major accidents between July 1968 and June 1974. Stepwise linear multiple regression studies relating the variables to accident rate showed pilot age, daylight pilot flight hours for the 90 days preceding the accident, the number of night carrier landings in the previous 30 days, and the number of daylight carrier landings in the previous 30 days explained 46.65% of noted accident rate variance. The results corroborate previously held theories that pilot error is the single largest causal factor in aircraft accidents.