The effects of quality and timeliness of targeting information on submarine employment of long range anti-ship cruise missiles
Parashak, Paul M.
Washburn, Alan R.
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Anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs) are proliferating throughout the world, with some nations gaining the potential to launch them from submarines. The long range of these missiles implies that the submarine would rely on target detections from other forces. Communication delays and accuracy of locating data influence shot accuracy. This thesis uses a maneuvering target statistical tracker model (MTST) of target motion and indicates that the submarine can conduct an effective launch with accurate locating information even with long communications delays. The analysis shows that significant degradation of the probability of target intercept occurs for an alerted or evading target. The analysis then determines how this is affected by the presence of other potential targets for the missile. Two assumptions are made about the performance of the ASCM seeker. A simplistic seeker that selects a target at random performs very poorly if other naval escorts and random neutral shipping are encountered. A more intelligent seeker that uses information about the relative size of the ships and attacks the largest one results in greatly improved performance.
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