Forecasting marine fog on the west coast of the United States using a linear discriminant analysis approach.

Abstract

The objective of this study is to develop classification equations to forecast the daily probability of occurrence of marine fog at selected locations on the west coast of the United States, using parameters easily obtainable from upper-air soundings and surface observations. In order to achieve this objective a computerized stepwise linear discriminant analysis program is extensively employed. Data input consists of surface and radiosonde observations for the five-year period 1 July 1968 to 30 June 1973 at three U. S. west coast stations, namely San Diego and Oakland, California and Quillayute, Washington. Tables showing the number of fog and no-fog cases, the classification functions, and the percentages of correct fog and no-fog discrimination are presented for each station. The most capable fog/no-fog discrimination parameters are discussed for each set of classification equations. Test results for the San Diego equations using a three-year independent data set are also shown.