Technological forecasts for hard copy and video display communication terminals.
Kaler, Herbert Charles
Musgrave, Gerald L.
Creighton, John W.
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The communication industry is clearly in a state of transition and communication managers faced with decisions about commitments to today's products need to know about possible future changes in the industry. To fulfill this need, this study develops technological forecasts for hard copy and video display communications terminals. Changes in input/output parameters of the terminals, when the changes will occur, and how rapid the changes will be are estimated. These forecasts are determined by first measuring a limited number of performance parameters such as print rate and transmission speed. Then mathematical models are fitted to the performance parameter data and the trend extrapolated into the future to make predictions. The results of the study indicate that print rates will increase significantly in the next ten years to a level of approximately 2000 characters per second and transmission speeds to' a level of approximately 500,000 bits per second for hard copy terminals. Video display terminals show a steeper increase with transmission speed levels of 1.5 Mbps predicted in the next five years. Also, the print rate per dollar and transmission speed per dollar for these terminals will show rapid increases in the next ten years. This study indicates that hard copy terminals and video display terminals are on the verge of significant changes that communications managers should take into consideration in their procurement and design decisions.
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