An objective determination of tropical cyclone warning positions.
Curry, William Thomas.
Elsberry, R. L.
Chan, J. C. L.
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A technique has been developed to determine objectively the location of a tropical cyclone at warning time and reduce the short-term forecast errors due to errors in the warning position. The western North Pacific CLIPER (CLImatology and PERsistence) forecast scheme is used to generate a potential track, from each fix, and a smooth curve is fit to the future and past positions. When multiple fixes are available, weighting functions are applied to account for fix platform accuracy and time of receipt. A set of 836 cases from 30 storms during 1981-1983 was evaluated. Using the objective scheme, 16 of the 30 tropical cyclones had reduced warning position errors compared to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center official warning position. For 11 of the 30 storms, the objective warning positions resulted in more accurate 24-h forecasts with the CLIPER technique than the official warning positions. This technique appears to provide an efficient, interactive tool to the forecaster to use in establishing the warning position.
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