Comparison of western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone aids using storm-related and synoptic parameters.
MetadataShow full item record
The performance of four western North Pacific Ocean objective aids (One-way influence Tropical Cyclone Model-OTCM; Recurver analog-REC; Total analog-TOTL; and 500 mb steering-CY50) is evaluated using mean forecast error (MFE), systematic error and cross-track (CT) and along-track (AT) statistics. Stratification of these errors by storm-related (latitude, longitude, intensity, 12-h intensity change and size) and synoptic parameters through empirical orthogonal functions (700 mb easterlies/250 mb trough, 700 mb westerlies/250 mb trough, 700 mb easterlies/250 mb ridge, 700 mb westerlies/250 mb ridge) distinguishes between different conditions associated with tropical cyclone motion. The systematic and CT/AT error results reveal distinct biases for each objective aid: 1) OTCM (short-range rightward/slow and long-range leftward/fast); 2) REC (rightward/fast); TOTL (leftward/fast); and 4) CY50 (rightward/slow). The OTCM has the best performance as a result of a small systematic bias. The REC analog has large forecast errors on left-turning and straight-moving storms due to its selection of only recurving analogs. The selection of analogs from the total sample (TOTL) results in errors due to missed recurvature forecasts. Finally, the CY50 has the worst long-range skill because of the lack of the physics of OTCM and climatology influence of the analog techniques.
RightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Kubicki, Adam R. (Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School, 1999-09);In this research, the design and implementation of an integrated circuit, digitally programmable, analog to analog filter are presented. By functioning in the analog domain the quantization errors and hardware requirements ...
Schafer, Jeffrey L. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1995-03);Significant research in high performance analog-to-digital converters (ADCs) has been directed at retaining part of the high-speed flash ADC architecture, while reducing the total number of comparators in the circuit. The ...
Lee, Ralph D. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2000-12);In this research, the design, simulation and mask layout for a VLSI Digitally Programmable Generalize Impedance Converter (GIC) Filter is presented. Programmable elements are filter type (low-pass, high-pass, band-pass and ...