An empirical assessment of defense contractor risk 1976-1984.
Martin, Wayne Anthony
Boger, Dan C.
Jones, Carl R.
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This thesis attempts to analyze and measure the relationship between defense contractor risk and rate of return. An historical perspective is gained through an extensive review of significant legislation, studies, and policy changes related to this topic. The government contracting environment and the associated risks are examined from the perspectives of both the government and contractors . The nature of risk and methods of risk analysis are investigated Empirical analysis of the defense contractor risk-return relationship is performed utilizing four methods : mean-variance analysis of rate of return, the Capital Asset Pricing Model, mean-variance analysis of total and government backlog, and mean-variance analysis of Five-Year Defense Program elements. Emphasis is placed on investigating the feasibility of adapting Gloria Hurdle's Leverage, Risk, Market Structure and Profitability Model to evaluate the Department of Defense contract pricing, financing, and profit policies.
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