Developing a Markov Model to be used as a force shaping tool for the Navy Nurse Corps
Kinstler, Daniel Paul
Johnson, Raymond W.
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A Markov Model was used to determine the number of nurses the Navy must gain each year in order to maintain desired end strength. Significant characteristics affecting career progression of individuals in the Navy Nurse Corps were identified. The characteristic of primary concern, accession source, was determined to be significant. Markov models were created to identify personnel flow from ENS through LCDR. The models end-strength projections for 2006-2009 were then compared to Nurse Corps targeted end-strengths for this same period. Several scenarios were run to minimize overages and underages in rank distribution. Optimization was achieved by changing both the distribution of accession sources and the distribution of recruited ranks. Optimal distribution of accession source and rank are dependant upon the degree of accepTable deviation from these targets. As stated above we were not able to acquire this information limiting our ability to accurately forecast optimized distribution of accession source or rank. The Markov Model demonstrated that the Nurse Corps current business practices optimize accessions for two year projections. Increasing variation between the current force structure plan and our models projections suggest that greater efficiency could be obtained in the out-years. This Markov Model provides a tool for improving extended forecasts.
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