Characteristic errors in 120-H tropical cyclone track forecasts in the western North Pacific

Download
Author
Kehoe, Ryan M.
Date
2005-03Advisor
Elsberry, Russell L.
Second Reader
Boothe, Mark A.
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
occurring most frequently. For the 217 large-error cases due to midlatitude influences, the most frequent error mechanisms were E-DCI (midlatitude), excessive response to vertical wind shear, excessive midlatitude cyclogenesis (E-MCG), insufficient midlatitude cyclogenesis (I-MCG), excessive midlatitude cyclolysis (E-MCL) and excessive midlatitude anticyclogenesis (E-MAG), which accounted for 68% of all large errors occurring in both NOGAPS and GFDN. Characteristics and symptoms of the erroneous forecast tracks and model fields are documented and illustrative case studies are presented. Proper identification and removal of the track forecast displaying an error mechanism could form a selective consensus that will be more accurate than a non-selective consensus.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.Collections
Related items
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
-
Downstream impacts due to the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific
Dea, Jonathan M. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2007-03);Analysis of the eddy kinetic energy budget for four cases of extratropical transition (ET) with North Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs) is conducted. The cases compare varying ET and midlatitude flow characteristics. Each ... -
Simulations of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Phasing between the Upper-Level Trough and Tropical Cyclones
Ritchie, Elizabeth A.; Elsberrry, Russell L. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2007);Whether the tropical cyclone remnants will become a significant extratropical cyclone during the reintensification stage of extratropical transition is a complex problem because of the uncertainty in the tropical cyclone, ... -
An eddy kinetic energy view of physical and dynamical processes in distinct forecast scenarios for the extratropical transition of two tropical cyclones
Keller, Julia H.; Jones, Sarah C.; Harr, Patrick A. (American Meteorological Society, 2014-08);The extratropical transition (ET) of Hurricane Hanna (2008) and Typhoon Choi-Wan (2009) caused a variety of forecast scenarios in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System ...