A personnel flow model for predicting the Coast Guard enlisted force structure

Abstract

The U.S. Coast Guard is a military service with a hierarchical organization. CG manpower planning requires a forecast of the number of accessions needed as well as the resulting force structure for each month of the upcoming year. In this thesis, we present a modified Markov transition model that integrates the pertinent personnel flows to forecast the monthly accessions and force structure for the enlisted CG. Personnel flows are estimated using standard statistical techniques such as linear regression analysis and point estimation. An algorithm is presented to solve for end of mother stocks was meeting a man year consumption constraint--Full Time Equivalent (FTE) when attrition rates and the beginning and end of year stocks are given. Finally, the pertinent personnel flow estimates, the FTE algorithm and the modified Markov model are integrated into a comprehensive Military Employment Capability Plan which is programmed on a micro-computer spreadsheet.