A study of carrier based aircraft readiness sustainability in the event of external air logistic support deprivation

Abstract

This thesis investigates the feasibility of constructing a quantitative model of the Navy's aircraft carrier aviation logistic support system. The emphasis is on predicting the effect that an interruption of COD/VOD material would have on the sustainability of aircraft readiness. Two forecasting models were constructed; one for forecasting full mission capable rates (FMC) and one for forecasting mission capable rates (MC). The conclusion was that aircraft readiness is very sensitive to a prolonged interruption in the external air logistic support pipeline. Recommendations are made to conduct specific carrier operations to extend the range of actual data observations. Non-linear, multiple regression and Box-Jenkins statistical techniques were utilized. A substantial data base consisting of various measures of the logistic support system over a three year period is included.