An examination of the influence of environmental factors on recruiting Category I-IIIA males.

Abstract

This thesis studies the influence of environmental factors on recruiting Category I-IIIA males for the United States Army. Econometric modeling using regression analysis is used to estimate the determinants of the supply of recruits. Four models are developed from the cross-sectional time-series data and comparisons of the elasticities of the independent variables are given. The four models are Ordinary Least Squares, Instrumental Variable Estimation, Instrumental Variable Estimation with AR(1), and Fixed Effects. Following a discussion on how the data was collected over a four year period on a monthly basis for each of the Army's fifty-five recruiting battalions (except Puerto Rico), each model is specified and the possible violations of the basic assumptions of linear regression discussed. Results of each model are presented and interpreted in terms of resource allocation and policy implementation. Finally, fixed effects regional models for each recruiting brigade are run and geographical variation examined.