Exploiting Navy officer End-of-Active-Obligated-Service (EAOS)--date in forecasting losses
Campbell, Michael C.
Mehay, Stephen L.
Rowe, Murray W.
MetadataShow full item record
The key to effective military personnel planning is accurate loss forecasting. Accurate estimates of future losses enable personnel managers to determine the number of individuals to recruit and promote, as well as the size and cost for future personnel inventories. This thesis describes the generation and analysis of several simple lose rate forecasting models. The models are divided into two classes, those that incorporate eligibility data and those that do not. Aviation officers, particularly pilots, were narrowed down to Lieutenants with four to nine years of commissioned service. They were divided into three communities (jet, prop and helo). Two methods of loss forecasting were used, BI which is somewhat akin to OP-01s technique and the method I wish to exploit, EAOS. EAOS techniques appear to contribute more to officer loss forecasting than the BI technique. However, BI techniques are still significant but to a lesser degree. The findings are discussed within the context of the study.
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Bacon, A. Ben (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1989-06);The lagged-averaged forecast (LAF) technique applied to tropical cyclone track prediction is a weighted sum of recent forecasts that were started from initial conditions at various times lagging the start of the forecast ...
Evaluation of Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone track forecast difficulty and skill as a function of environmental structure Webb, Benny H. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1996-03);A Systematic Approach for tropical cyclone track forecasting by Carr and Elsberry defines the Synoptic Environment of each cyclone in terms of ten Synoptic Pattern/Region combinations. Because storms in each Pattern/Region ...
Statistical post-processing of the navy nested tropical cyclone model and the operational tropical cyclone model : final report for period October 1980-September 1981 Peak, James E.; Elsberry, Russell L. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1981-09); NPS-63-81-003A statistical technique proposed by Elsberry and Frill (1980) for adjusting dynamical tropical cyclone motion forecasts is extended to the Two-Way Interactive Nested Tropical Cyclone Model (NTCM) and the operational ...