Analyzing the assignment of enlisted recruiting goal shares via the Navy's enlisted goaling and forecasting model
Hojnowski, Ronald A.
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This thesis examines the process by which enlisted goal shares are generated by Commander, Navy Recruiting Command (CNRC) and assigned to Navy Regional recruiting commands. Through use of an econometric goaling and forecasting model employed by CNRC and a less complicated weighting system used by Regions, goal shares are generated using factors believed to accurately predict future recruiting success. The factors used in the new contract prediction model include local economic conditions, population demographics, and recruiting resources. This thesis evaluates these factors to obtain a clear understanding of how each affects the establishment of goal shares. The various levels within the recruiting organization are analyzed, to include a discussion on how each of these levels prioritizes assigned goals, specifically accessions and new contract objectives, and the reasons why these priorities differ across levels within the organization. The thesis analyzes the role of past production data and Production per Recruiter (PPR) in establishing goal. Recruiter incentives and potential impacts of these incentives on the attainment of quality contracts are also discussed. Finally, the accuracy of CNRC forecasts is evaluated and recommendations are made to help ensure the continued success of these forecasts well into the future. This thesis finds CNRC's goaling forecasts to be quite accurate; however, with more precise data for a few specific variables within the goaling model, it is believed the accuracy of forecasts could be improved. Additionally, this thesis finds that due to current recruiter incentives, recruiters may not be motivated to contract the best possible candidates for enlistment at all times.
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