Forecasting the onset and intensity of vertically propagating mountain waves over the Alps
Coughlin, Joseph D.
Nuss, Wendell A.
Doyle, James D.
MetadataShow full item record
Vertically propagating waves (VPWs) generated by prominent mountain ridges are a severe hazard to military aircraft operations. Properly forecasting the initiation and duration of such a phenomenon is critical, yet quite often missed by turbulence forecasters. A primary reason for poor forecast skill is vague VPW forecasting guidelines at the Air Force operational centers, focusing a majority of attention on the less severe, more common trapped lee wave response. The United States Air Forces in Europe Operational Weather Squadron (USAFE OWS) has requested a tool to aid in improving forecast ability of VPW events. Satellite analysis from October 2003 through March 2004 indicated an occurrence of six major VPW events to the lee of the Alps. Actual verification of turbulence in each VPW was unavailable due to the minimal pilot report (PIREP) database kept for military flights over Europe, therefore, a subjective assessment of turbulent conditions was determined depending on the resulting cloud signature. Using NCEP GFS model analysis and upstream upper air soundings during these events, an average synoptic condition and critical weather parameters were created. These developed tools were then tested from October 2004 through March 2005 to prove their reliability. In a limited data set these tools identified all VPW events, with only a 25% false alarm rate. This is compared to a 6% forecast ability with 0% false alarm rate determined during the 2003-2004 winter season by USAFE OWS forecasters. These new rules should be valuable in that they will provide a much needed capability for synoptic scale turbulence forecasters to better determine hazardous aviation conditions associated with VPWs.
Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Surface layer processes and nocturnal low-level jet development--an observational study during PECAN Beall, Michael K. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2016-12);Low-level jets (LLJ) occur in many regions around the world and exhibit a diverse range of impacts across a variety of climate and weather-related applications, including U.S. Department of Defense assets and operations. ...
The effects of shoaling internal tides on benthic exchange events and near-boundary mixing along the continental shelf Pastrana, Darren L. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2013-06);The effects of shoaling inner shelf internal tidal bores and solitons on the bottom boundary layer have been observed and analyzed during October 2012 at Monterey Bay in Monterey, CA. This research utilized measurements ...
Improvement and evaluation of the mesoscale meteorological model MM5 for air-quality applications in Southern California and the San Joaquin Valley: Final Report Bornstein, Robert D.; Boucouvala, Dimitra; Wilkinson, James; Yaday, Anil; Seaman, Nelson L.; Stauffer, David R.; Hunter, Glenn K.; Miller, Douglas (Prepared for the California Air Resources Board and California Environmental Protection Agency, 2001-01-30);The objective of the Penn State University (PSU) part of the study was to investigate the MM5's ability to simulate wintertime fog in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) and summertime sea breeze flows in the South Coast Air Basin ...