A comparison of ionospheric propagation mode delay predictions from Advanced PROPHET 4.3 with measured data

Download
Author
Nadal, Jose L.
Date
1992-12Advisor
Adler, Richard W.
Second Reader
Wadsworth, Donald van Z.
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
This thesis compares the outputs of the ionospheric propagation prediction model ADVANCED PROPHET, 4.3 to measurements of propagation mode delay for a High Frequency communications link between Monterey and San Diego, California. Mode delay variations throughout the day are presented for experimental data and PROHPET predictions. A margin of error of less than 0.5 msec was considered acceptable and the number of acceptable predictions per day was generated. Acceptable predicted data collected over the test period was analyzed to establish which hours of the day PROPHET accurately predicts propagation mode delay, independent of frequency, date and power levels. During the first six hours of the day PROPHET data tracks experimental data for mode delay change patterns. On a daily basis, predictions are best between 1400 and 1700 GMT (0600 to 0900 local time), although patterns could not be established for other hours of the day. Predicted mode delay percentage distributions show greater correlation during the first three hours of the morning and at sunset.
Rights
Copyright is reserved by the copyright ownerCollections
Related items
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
-
Advanced Concepts and Applications for Predictive Analytics in the Maritime Domain
Johnson, Bonnie W. (Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate SchoolMonterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2019-12); NPS-19-N019-BNaval tactical operations could take a significant leap in progress with the aid of a real-time automated predictive analytics capability that provides predictions of second and third order effects of possible courses of ... -
A Nonparametric Ensemble Postprocessing Approach for Short-Range Visibility Predictions in Data-Sparse Areas
Ryerson, William R.; Hacker, Joshua P. (2018-06);This work develops and tests the viability of obtaining skillful short-range (<20 h) visibility predictions using statistical postprocessing of a 4-km, 10-member Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) ensemble configured ... -
Toward Improving Short-Range Fog Prediction in Data-Denied Areas Using the Air Force Weather Agency Mesoscale Ensemble
Ryerson, William R. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2012-09);This work develops and tests the viability of a new framework for producing short-range (20 h) probabilistic fog predictions using post-processing of a 4-km, 10-member Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) ensemble ...