A comparison of ionospheric propagation mode delay predictions from Advanced PROPHET 4.3 with measured data

Abstract

This thesis compares the outputs of the ionospheric propagation prediction model ADVANCED PROPHET, 4.3 to measurements of propagation mode delay for a High Frequency communications link between Monterey and San Diego, California. Mode delay variations throughout the day are presented for experimental data and PROHPET predictions. A margin of error of less than 0.5 msec was considered acceptable and the number of acceptable predictions per day was generated. Acceptable predicted data collected over the test period was analyzed to establish which hours of the day PROPHET accurately predicts propagation mode delay, independent of frequency, date and power levels. During the first six hours of the day PROPHET data tracks experimental data for mode delay change patterns. On a daily basis, predictions are best between 1400 and 1700 GMT (0600 to 0900 local time), although patterns could not be established for other hours of the day. Predicted mode delay percentage distributions show greater correlation during the first three hours of the morning and at sunset.