Deterring nuclear-armed Third World dictators: a targeting strategy for the emerging threat.
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Authors
Gellene, David J.
Subjects
NA
Nuclear Deterrence
Third World
Nuclear Proliferation
Presidential Directive 59
Omnibalancing
Nuclear Deterrence
Third World
Nuclear Proliferation
Presidential Directive 59
Omnibalancing
Advisors
Wirtz, James J.
Date of Issue
1992-06
Date
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
The continuing efforts of several developing nations to acquire nuclear weapons
indicates that the United States may be required to implement a deterrence policy aimed at
authoritarian regimes in the Third World. Therefore. U. S. decision-makers must re-evaluate
the conceptual foundations of American deterrence policy. This research suggests a solution
to the problem of deterring nuclear-capable Third World nations from using nuclear
weapons against the United States, its allies and friends. The new deterrence policy is based
on the theory of omnibalancing which predicts that the Third World dictators are strongly
influenced by perceived internal threats to their regime. Successful deterrence, therefore, is
dependent on holding at risk the mechanisms used by Third World authoritarian regimes to
maintain internal control. Although developing a nuclear deterrence policy against Third
World dictators is critical to the security of the United States, there has been a hesitancy for
Western analysts to consider the problem of Third World nuclear deterrence because they
either perceive that these regimes are irrational and therefore non-deterrable or they believe
that the U.S. nuclear arsenal in itself will provide deterrence. This analysis addresses the flaws of these perceptions and offers an analytical basis for new U.S. strategic thinking about
deterrence and the Third World. A deterrence policy based on omnibalancing can be a
viable means of preventing Third World nuclear use against the United States and its
interests.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
National Security Affairs (NSA)
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
135 p.;28 cm.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.