A real time sharpening of NOGAPS predictions of mid-latitude Central Pacific cyclones.
Harrington, Edward J.
MetadataShow full item record
A Modifying Model is developed which sharpens the 24 hour position forecast issued by the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction model (NOGAPS) 24 hours into a selected, mid-latitude, Central Pacific cyclone. The technique involves measuring cyclone characteristics within the first 24 hours and using these values in regression equations to provide improved forecasts for the next 24 hour position forecast. Generally, the modified position forecasts are to the left and ahead of the NOGAPS position forecasts along the anticipated track of the cyclone. Probability ellipses about the Modifying Model estimates cover about 50 to 60 percent of the area of the corresponding NOGAPS probability ellipses. Only cyclones in the deepening phase (central pressure decreasing) or forecast to be in the deepening phase are utilized in the data base. The Modifying Model is sufficiently simple that shipboard personnel can make the computations in real time.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Comparison of the Naval Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System cloud analyses and forecasts with the Air Force Real Time nephanalyses cloud model Marsteller, Gary E. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1998-06);This thesis compares RTNEPH and NOGAPS analyses for high, middle, and low clouds during January 1998 and October 1997. We believe that the RTNEPH analyses are reasonably accurate except for in the polar regions and the low ...
Ulses, Greg A. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1998-03-01);A statistical post-processing technique is developed and tested to reduce the Navy global model (NOGAPS) track forecast errors for western North Pacific tropical cyclones during 1992-1996. In addition to the basic storm ...
Schmeiser, Gregory J. (2001-03);On 25 January 2000, a rapidly developing cyclone tracked up the East Coast of the United States. Along with this system, 12 to 18 inches of snow fell on major cities from North Carolina to Washington DC. This snowstorm ...