A real time sharpening of NOGAPS predictions of mid-latitude Central Pacific cyclones.
Harrington, Edward J.
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A Modifying Model is developed which sharpens the 24 hour position forecast issued by the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction model (NOGAPS) 24 hours into a selected, mid-latitude, Central Pacific cyclone. The technique involves measuring cyclone characteristics within the first 24 hours and using these values in regression equations to provide improved forecasts for the next 24 hour position forecast. Generally, the modified position forecasts are to the left and ahead of the NOGAPS position forecasts along the anticipated track of the cyclone. Probability ellipses about the Modifying Model estimates cover about 50 to 60 percent of the area of the corresponding NOGAPS probability ellipses. Only cyclones in the deepening phase (central pressure decreasing) or forecast to be in the deepening phase are utilized in the data base. The Modifying Model is sufficiently simple that shipboard personnel can make the computations in real time.
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