Evaluating the bias of alternative cost progress models: tests using aerospace industry acquisition programs

Download
Author
Tagg, David A.
Date
1992-12Advisor
Moses, O. Douglas
Liao, Shu S.
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
This study evaluates the quality of cost estimates produced by each of four cost progress models--a random walk model, the traditional learning curve model, a production rate model (fixed-variable model), and a model incorporating both learning curve and production rate effects (Bemis production rate adjustment model). Emphasis is on assessing the level of bias associated with these models and determining the influence of various factors on model performance. Findings indicate, on average, the learning curve and Bemis models underestimate unit costs, while the random walk and fixed-variable models overestimate unit costs. Different factors are evaluated to determine their significance in explaining variations in the bias of their significance in explaining variations in the bias of unit cost predictions and relationships between the significant variables and model cost prediction bias are described Findings indicate the Bemis model is superior to the other cost progress models because it exhibits the least bias and is not significantly influenced (in terms of bias) by variations in the factors considered.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.Collections
Related items
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
-
Using agent-based modeling to examine the logistical chain of the seabase
Milton, Rebecca M. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2004-03);This thesis examines a 2015 Marine Expeditionary Brigade scheme of maneuver as the baseline scenario for a commercial logistics support software program called SEAWAY. Modifications to this scenario are conducted using a ... -
A smart climatology of evaporation duct height and surface radar propagation in the Indian Ocean
Twigg, Katherine L. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2007-09);Surface electromagnetic propagation over the ocean is highly sensitive to near-surface atmospheric variability, particularly the height of the evaporation duct. Seasonal variation in near-surface meterological factors and ... -
Real-time modeling of cross-body flow for torpedo tube recovery of the Phoenix Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV)
Byrne, Kevin Michael (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1998-03);A virtual world provides an exceptional resource for the testing and development of an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV). The difficulties associated with the underwater environment are numerous and complex. In order to ...