A forecasting model for procurement administrative lead time.
MacKinnon, Douglas J.
Kemple, William G.
Sovereign, Michael G.
MetadataShow full item record
The thesis objective is to develop a model to forecast the cost and the lead time in awarding a contract. All available, pertinent contract data was obtained and utilized from the Procurement Department of Naval Air Warfare Center Weapons Division, China Lake, California. The data was limited to the years 1989 through 1991. The actual cost of letting a contract has not been recorded, so a prediction model was fit only for the Procurement Administrative Lead Time (PALT). Cost is believed to be positively correlated with PALT. Explanatory data available for each contract were: contract amount, contract type, contract description, and competitive nature. A 'complexity score' was also available, which was determined by procurement personnel. Since many of the same variables used to compute complexity were also used to predict PALT, those variables were verified as possible predictors of cost by building a prediction model for complexity score. The following variables served as good predictors of PALT: contract amount, contract description and contract type. It was also determined that the competitive nature of the contract had little impact on PALT. With this data, it is difficult to forecast PALT precisely for a given contract. However, with the recommended collection of additional data, PALT and the cost of a contract should become predictable with increasing confidence.
RightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Rendon, Rene G. (Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2015);Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present the results of contract management process maturity assessments in the US Navy using a process capability maturity model. The maturity model is used to benchmark an ...
Amundson, Patrick D.; Yu, Edgar A. (Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School, 2017-12);The purpose of this research project is two-fold: to explore the development and progression of the Navy's Green Procurement Program (GPP) and then to assess Navy organizations' degree of success with incorporating GPPs ...
Amundson, Patrick; Yu, Edgar (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2017-12); NPS-CM-18-027The purpose of this research project is two-fold: to explore the development and progression of the Navyﾒs Green Procurement Program (GPP) and then to assess Navy organizationsﾒ degree of success with incorporating GPPs ...