Javelin: a case study in model-test-model

Abstract

The acquisition of new weapon systems is a long and expensive process. Test and Evaluation is a critical and costly step in that process. Model-type-model (MTM) is an emerging operations research technique that can improve efficiency and effectiveness of weapon system evaluation. For example, MTM can be used to predict whether a given test scenario will yield significant results. The goal of this thesis is to: (1) examine the suitability of proposed scenarios for comparing the existing antiarrnor system, Dragon versus the proposed system, Javelin; (2) compare the weapon systems according to approved measures of effectiveness (MOE) and; (3) identify potential additional test conditions which may cause significant changes to the MOE. The pre-test model using (Janus A), a high resolution, combat simulation will impact on the operational test of the weapon systems occurring in September 1993. Although M-T-M is an approved DoD construct, limited experiments have been done. This thesis is unique because it explores for the first time, using MTM, an industry weapon system with approved scenarios and MOE; secondly, this thesis has been delivered in time to impact on the Operational Test and Evaluation plan. The results will directly benefit Operational Test and Evaluation Command (OPTEC) in their test design and operational effectiveness analysis.