Measuring NAVSPASUR sensor performance using logistic regression models.
Roberts, Brook R.
Sohn, So Young
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Since its establishment the Naval Space Surveillance Command (NAVSPASUR)in Dalhgren Virginia has been providing surveillance data (NAVSPASUR data sets) for thousands of space objects in a near earth orbit. To date, very little statistical analysis of these data sets in the form of a system performance evaluation has been conducted. The objective of this thesis is to provide NA VSPASUR with a statistical method to evaluate the system performance in terms of its capability of detecting space objects.. In this thesis six individual station models , as well as a system-wide model are estimated. Optimal probability levels for classifying predictions are additionally provided. The results being provided are obtained through the implementation of Logistic Regression analysis. The system- wide model estimated in this thesis, is superior in its prediction accuracy when compared to the previous mode! provided to NAVSPASUR in a September 1991, Naval Postgraduate School Master's Thesis. Finally an implementation program written in FORTRAN is given. This program provides a user friendly interface capability for predicting system performance in terms of its detection ability.
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