An analytical model for the treatment and evacuation of casualties in a low-intensity conflict.
Howard, Tracy L.
Gaver, Donald P.
Marshall, Kneale T.
Oswald, Richard E.
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This thesis studies the treatment and evacuation of casualties in a Low-Intensity Conflict. The study addresses the effects of the evacuation policy at the medical battalion level, or echelon. The evacuation policy assigns a threshold number of days to guide surgeons in deciding which casualties should be treated and which should be evacuated. The main tradeoff in choosing this policy involves either treating and returning casualties to duty, or evacuating casualties to maintain a reserve capacity for unexpected casualty arrivals. The study develops simple analytical models which provide basic quantitative measures of the effects of the evacuation policy, and it establishes a framework around which more complex models may be built. The potential of the model is illustrated by examining a specific scenario. This analysis provides the decision maker with estimates of the number of available beds, the proportion of patients returned to duty, and the probability of being able to accommodate a mass arrival of casualties.
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