Naval Postgraduate School
Assessing the possible return on investment resulting from upgrading a subsystem.
assessingpossibl00chan.pdf (5.033Mb)Abstract
This thesis develops a decision aid to assist in assessing
the cost effectiveness of upgrading a subsystem. The
procedures developed in this thesis are to estimate the time
of onset and the magnitude of the degradation of a subsystem
and to estimate the best time to upgrade the subsystem. Two
procedures are considered to estimate the time of onset of
subsystem degradation and the magnitude of the degradation.
One is maximum likelihood; the other is a Bayesian procedure.
These estimates are then used in a cost model to estimate the
cost of remaining with the current subsystem for the remaining
planned lifetime of the system. A comparison of this cost with
that of investing in the upgraded subsystem can be used to
obtain a best time to invest in the upgraded subsystem.
Procedures to assess the uncertainty of the cost advantage of
upgrading the subsystem are also studied to give further
information to the decision maker.
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