Assessing the possible return on investment resulting from upgrading a subsystem.
Gaver, Donald P.
Jacobs, Patricia A.
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This thesis develops a decision aid to assist in assessing the cost effectiveness of upgrading a subsystem. The procedures developed in this thesis are to estimate the time of onset and the magnitude of the degradation of a subsystem and to estimate the best time to upgrade the subsystem. Two procedures are considered to estimate the time of onset of subsystem degradation and the magnitude of the degradation. One is maximum likelihood; the other is a Bayesian procedure. These estimates are then used in a cost model to estimate the cost of remaining with the current subsystem for the remaining planned lifetime of the system. A comparison of this cost with that of investing in the upgraded subsystem can be used to obtain a best time to invest in the upgraded subsystem. Procedures to assess the uncertainty of the cost advantage of upgrading the subsystem are also studied to give further information to the decision maker.
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