A model of defense for Russia.
Hanson, David B.
Tritten, James J.
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This thesis constructs an original model of defense for Russia. This model is developed in the context of Russia's current military situation, but can easily be adapted to other nations. It explains the geographic extent that a nation will defend through the interplay of two factors: the cost of defense and the propensity to defend. The dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and the collapse of the Soviet Union have left Russian forces based in potentially hostile territory which is logistically insupportable in the event of hostilities. To support its troops, Moscow must redeploy them and prepare new theaters of military operations. The requirement for prepared theaters was discussed by the Russian military strategist, A. A. Svechin. However, first Moscow must determine where wars are likely, and what territory it will defend. The model draws upon the work of Halford Mackinder, Johann von Thunen, Yi-Fu Tuan, and Walter Christaller. The model addresses the complexity of the elements which compose the cost of defense and the propensity to defend. These elements can come into conflict with each other over specific geographic areas. Three regions of conflict are addressed: the Caucasus, Central Asia, and Ukraine. The thesis concludes with some policy implications.
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