Crude oil price modeling … a macro-economic Approach

Abstract

The Part-I analysis was an attempt to identify factors which had a measurable impact on crude oil price. Once identified these factors could then be examined more carefully (in the Part-II analysis) to create a model which could be used to predict general price levels. It was assumed that the petroleum market could be conveniently captured through the concept of aggregate macro-economic factors and that such factors could be easily combined with a global or U.S. wide scope.