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Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting. Part III : updated environmental structure characteristics

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Author
Reader, Grahame
Boothe, Mark A.
Elsberry, Russell L.
Carr, Lester E. III
Date
1999-09
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Abstract
The Meteorological knowledge base of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting in the Southern Hemisphere has been updated to reflect a more global terminology. Examples of these new environment structures in operational (NOGAPS) analyses and tracks are given. Perhaps the most important conclusion is that all cases in the 1990-91 through 1998-1999 seasons could be classified into one of these 14 synoptic pattern/region combinations. The nine-year "climatology" of the occurrences of each ofthe 14 combinations is given for the South Indian and Pacific Oceans separately, and the characteristic tracks in each of these 14 combinations are provided. Some new transitional mechanisms between these combinations have also been defined. The importance of these transitions from one pattern/region combinations to another is that the TC track then also changes. The frequency of recurring (greater than three) transitions in this nine-year sample is summarized. Because the TC is at any time in only one pattern/region combination, the concern of the forecaster is on the possible transitions from that pattern/region. To assist the forecaster, the percentages of these transitions from each pattern/region combination are also summarized. Some ofthese transitions are clearly more favored than others, which is useful guidance to the forecaster.
Description
The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense.
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10945/24454
NPS Report Number
NPS-MR-99-004
Collections
  • All Technical Reports Collection
  • Meteorology (NPS-MR)

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    Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting, Part II: Climatology, Reproducibility, and Refinement of Meteorological Knowledge Base 

    Carr, Lester E., III.; Boothe, Mark A.; White, Sean R.; Kent, Chris S.; Elsberry Russell L. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1995-09); NPS-MR-95-001
    This report continues the development of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting by Carr and Elsberry (1994) with specific application to the western Pacific region. Five years (1989-93) of 12-h Naval ...
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    Evaluation of Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone track forecast difficulty and skill as a function of environmental structure 

    Webb, Benny H. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1996-03);
    A Systematic Approach for tropical cyclone track forecasting by Carr and Elsberry defines the Synoptic Environment of each cyclone in terms of ten Synoptic Pattern/Region combinations. Because storms in each Pattern/Region ...
  • Thumbnail

    Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting. Part II: Climatology and Refinement of Meteorological Knowledge Base 

    Bannister, Anthony J.; Boothe, Mark A.; Carr, Lester E., III; Elsberry, Russell L. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1998-09); NPS-MR-98-004
    The preliminary adaptation by Bannister et al. (1997) of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting meteorological knowledge base to the Southern Hemisphere has been extended to eight seasons (1990-91 ...
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