Optimal Defensive Allocations in the Face of Uncertain Terrorist Preferences, with an Emphasis on Transportation
Bier, Vicki M.
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"This paper extends a game-theoretic model for identifying optimal defensive resource allocations to the case of realistic multi-attribute terrorist objective functions. In particular, we compare the optimal defensive resource allocations to ten major US urban areas in the face of uncertain terrorist preferences with and without transportation-related attributes. The defender's uncertainty about terrorist preferences is addressed both by probability distributions over the attacker's attribute weights, and by allowing for attributes that are important to the attacker but not known to the defender. Estimates of the various terrorist attribute weights are inferred from (partial) ordinal expert judgments using the technique of probabilistic inversion."
This article appeared in Homeland Security Affairs (April 2012), supplement 4, article 4
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