Stochastic simulation of a Commander's decision cycle (SSIM CODE)

Abstract

This thesis develops a stochastic representation of a tactical commanderâ s decision cycle and applies the model within the high-resolution combat simulation: Combined Arms Analysis Tool for the 21st Century (Combat XXI). Combat XXI is a Joint Army-Marine Corps effort to replace the Combined Arms and Support Evaluation Model (CASTFOREM)â a legacy combat simulation. Combat XXI is a non-interactive, high-resolution, analytical combat simulation focused on tactical combat. Combat XXI is being developed by the U.S. Army TRADOC Analysis Center-White Sands Missile Range (TRAC- WSMR) and the Marine Corps Combat Development Command (MCCDC). Combat XXI models land and amphibious warfare for applications in the research, development and acquisition, and the advanced concepts requirements domains. Stochastic decision-making enhances Command and Control (C2) decision processes in Combat XXI. The stochastic simulation of a commanderâ s decision cycle (SSIM CODE) addresses variability in decision-making due to uncertainty, chance and the commanderâ s attributes. A Bayesian Network representation of a conditional probability model for a commanderâ s decision cycle is implemented in SSIM CODE. This thesis develops, applies and evaluates the effectiveness of SSIM CODE.