Divergent Trends of Transformation to Democracy and Market Economy The Commonwealth of Independent States and Mongolia; Strategic Insights: v.4, issue 12 (December 2005)
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This report provides an overview on the state, trajectory and management of the transformation processes in the 13 CIS countries plus Mongolia. It is based on the results of the Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI) and the underlying country assessments which analyze each individual country in detail. While post-communist Mongolia is generally referred to as an unexpected 'success' of transformation, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) remains a politically volatile region. This said two opposing trends of political development have characterized the region in the past three years (2003-2005). While democratic transformation has exhausted itself in most of the countries and the ruling regimes are trying ever harder to stem democratic development, in two states - Georgia and Ukraine - social uprisings led to regime change with some potential for stable democracy. The 'revolutions' in these two states, like the unrest in Uzbekistan and mass protests in Kyrgyzstan, signal that political regimes in the CIS remain unstable. Political, ethno-religious, and social tensions are latent or even virulent in most area countries. Thus, further regime crises as in Georgia and the Ukraine cannot be ruled out, especially since the 'Revolution of the Roses' in Georgia and Ukraine's 'Orange Revolution' impact other societies in the region and cause concerns among autocratic leaders in the region.
This article appeared in Strategic Insights (December 2005), v.4 no.12
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