Pakistan's Nuclear Posture: Security and Survivability; Strategic Insights: February 2009

Abstract

This paper examines Pakistan’s strategy for ensuring the security and survivability of its nuclear deterrent during periods of peace, crisis, and war. Toward this end, five main features of Pakistan’s strategic deterrence policy are described in some detail. With an understanding of how Pakistani military planners perceive the basic requirements of their strategic deterrent, the ways in which the rapidly evolving United States-India strategic partnership threatens Pakistan’s core defense precepts become apparent. A set of new long-term Pakistani strategic concerns stimulated by the expanding U.S.-India partnership is identified and analyzed. The basic point is that projected developments in India’s nuclear and conventional military capabilities eventually could threaten the survivability of Pakistan’s strategic deterrent, which has always been a major concern for the country’s defense planners. The concluding section of the paper examines how the Pakistan government officials might view three emerging strategic threats posed by India and its expanding international partnerships.