Russia's Submarine Force determinants and prospects
Tully, John M.
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This thesis analyzes the factors likely to shape the future of the Russian submarine force. It examines key events affecting this force since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, and explores the determinants of these events. The Russian Federation inherited a huge submarine fleet from the Soviet Union. Due to the changing conditions in the world and in Russia, its future status is in doubt. The thesis begins by analyzing the development and roles of the Soviet submarine force. It then considers the four most significant factors that have affected the submarine force since 1991: 1) Russiaâ s poor economic performance, 2) Russiaâ s changing national security requirements, 3) competition from the other military services for a limited defense budget, and 4) changes within the military and society. The thesis concludes that the Russian submarine force is unlikely to undergo a major revival. The most probable scenario involves a smaller and less capable force. The most influential factors may be Russiaâ s economic performance and the military reform plans of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Defense Minister Sergey Ivanov.
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