Officer career paths and the effects of commissioning sources on the survival patterns of Army officers
Mehay, Stephen L.
Kocher, Kathryn M.
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This thesis analyzes the career paths of U.S. Army officers and evaluates the effect of commissioning source on their survival patterns. Data used in this study are taken from the Active Duty Military Master File provided by the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC). The data set contains information on 103,501 officers who were commissioned between 1981 and 2001. The results indicate that commissioning source, occupation (except for the special occupations and military police) and occupation category have significant effects on the survival curves of U.S. Army officers. Officers graduating from the ROTC Scholarship program and commissioned through Direct Commissioning have 10% and 19% greater hazards of leaving than USMA graduates; officers graduating from ROTC Non-Scholarship and OCS have 6% and 8% lower hazards of leaving than USMA graduates. Age, race and ethnicity, gender, marital status, number of non-spousal dependents, and graduate education all have significant effects on the survival function. Higher age at commissioning, being African-American, being married, each additional non-spousal dependent, and having a graduate degree have positive effects on survival patterns while being female has a negative effect on the survival patterns. Being prior enlisted is not statistically significant in all of the models, but when it is significant, it has a positive effect on the survival function.
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