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A recent improvement in the Navy's numerical-statistical scheme for forecasting the motion of hurricanes and typhoons

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Author
Daley, M. J.
Rinard, Stephen K.
Renard, Robert Joseph
Date
1970-01-10
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Abstract
The Navy's numerical-statistical scheme for forecasting the motion of tropical cyclones is reviewed. The numerical component (HATRACK) represents geostrophic steering of the cyclone by the Fleet Numerical Weather Central's smoothed isobaric height fields at 1000, 700, and 500 mb. The statistical component refers to the correction for bias in the numerical steering. The paper introduces an improvement in application of the statistical correction for bias. The enhanced scheme, MODIFIED HATRACK, is applied to forecasts of all named North Atlantic tropical cyclones in 1967 and 1968 and to a select number of 1967 North Pacific tropical storms and typhoons. The accuracy of MODIFIED HATRACK is found to excel the official forecast and that of the National Hurricane Center's NHC-67 technique for all forecast intervals through 48 hours. MODIFIED HATRACK errors range from an average of 40 nautical miles at 12 hours to 240 nautical miles at 48 hours. Such figures represent a 60 percent and a 10 percent reduction in errors, respectively, compared to official forecasts in the Atlantic. For the Pacific, the error reductions are of the order of 15 percent. (Author)
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/10945/26205
NPS Report Number
NPS-51RD0011A
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Related items

Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.

  • Thumbnail

    Forecasting the motion of northeastern Pacific tropical cyclones. 

    Freeman, David Lansing. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1972-03);
    Several operational methods of forecasting the motion of tropical cyclones over the northeast Pacific Ocean area are evaluated for three 1970 and nine 1971 hurricanes. OFFICIAL forecast accuracy is shown to excel that of ...
  • Thumbnail

    Further verifications of and experiments to improve the MODIFIED HATRACK scheme for forecasting the motion of tropical cyclones 

    Colgan, Stephen Gregory (Monterey, California; Naval Postgraduate School, 1971-09);
    The MODIFIED HATRACK (MODHATR) scheme for forecasting tropical cyclone motion consists of a numerical steering component using geostrophic winds derived from Fleet Numerical Weather Central's SR height field to steer the ...
  • Thumbnail

    Statistical adjustment of the HATRACK typhoon track forecasting model 

    Gilchrist, Ronald Charles (1980-06);
    A statistical technique proposed by Elsberry and Frill (1980) for adjusting dynamical tropical cyclone motion forecasts is extended to the Hurricane and Typhoon Tracking (HATRACK) scheme of Renard, et al (1968). The ...
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