Ukraine: independent nuclear weapons capability rising

Abstract

This thesis argues that Ukraine will move from possession of CIS-controlled nuclear weapons to the development of an independent nuclear capability. It attempts to show how the factors driving Ukraine towards remaining a nuclear state outweigh the factors acting in restraint. This thesis describes the contents of the Ukrainian arsenal, reviews its current material condition and investigates the likelihood that Ukraine can directly control it. This thesis also shows why Ukraine's most likely course of action in developing an independent nuclear weapons capability will be to retain its 46 SS-24 ICBMs.