Quantifying the probabilities of selection of surface warfare officers to executive officer

Abstract

This thesis seeks to identify factors affecting the probability of selection of a Surface Warfare Officer (SWO) to Executive Officer (XO) in the U.S. Navy. Selections to XO are made by a board that meets annually. Because a candidate is considered for selection in up to three consecutive boards, the possible outcomes in this process are selection to XO in one of three annual boards, failure to be selected to XO in the third board, or attrition from the process between boards. Using data on the board's selections over a three-year period (2002-2004) a hazards-based logistic regression model is developed to estimate the probabilities associated with a candidate's disposition based on his or her career profile. The model confirms that a candidate's recent fitness and evaluation report (FITREP) is the single-most-important factor affecting selection. Additionally, officers who have completed a tour in Washington D.C. or at the Bureau of Naval Personnel have higher probabilities of selection than do those who have completed other shore tours. But when an officer receives a poor FITREP, the probability of selection is low, regardless of other factors. A nonparametric statistical analysis is used to confirm these findings.