The fiscal year 1999 outlay estimate difference between the Department of Defense and the Congressional Budget Office

Abstract

This thesis focuses on the emergence and resolution of the outlay estimation problem associated with the development and enactment of the fiscal year (FY) 1999 Department of Defense (DoD) budget. During the budget development process, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated DoD FY 99 outlays to be $3.7 billion higher than estimates submitted by DoD, which would have caused DoD spending to exceed FY 99 defense spending targets established in the 1997 Balanced Budget Act (BBA). Four factors produced the $3.7 billion outlay estimate problem. These include DoD's Working Capital Fund (WCF) policies, the overall outlay estimating process, the analytical techniques used to estimate outlays, and the inherent variability within DoD's many programs. The issue was resolved by key decisions taken in the Senate that generated outlay savings within the budget, implemented through legislative provisions and member assurances. $1.3 billion in outlay savings were achieved in WCFs, $700 million as a result of administrative initiatives within two classified Air Force accounts, $737 million from DoD asset sales, and $190 million was saved based on the transfer of Operations and Maintenance funds to the Pentagon Renovation Transfer Fund.