Metrics of METOC forecast performance and operational impacts on carrier strike operations

Abstract

We have developed metrics of the performance and operational impacts of METOC support to strike operations conducted on operational aircraft carriers (CVs). Our goal was to assess that support and make recommendations on improving it. We adapted an existing automated real time METOC metrics system, which was developed for land based training missions, for use on CVs by developing a new data collection form, new metrics, and new collection, analysis, and reporting architecture for the remote entering of sensitive mission data without compromise. The weather support element of a CV, the OA division, does not provide strike mission planning support, but does provide situational awareness to pilots. Our system allows that situational awareness to be measured and assessed using metrics that quantify the performance of the forecasts, the relationship of the forecasts to the mitigating actions taken by pilots due to adverse weather conditions, and the effects of individual weather phenomena on the execution of strike missions. A key element of the data collection, analysis, and reporting system developed in this study is the collection of METOC related data from pilots during their intelligence debriefings. This system is readily adaptable for the assessment of METOC support to other warfare areas.