Alternative futures in U.S. nuclear strategy

Abstract

This thesis examines the future of United States nuclear strategy from the alternative futures/scenarios methodological approach. It begins by tracing the evolution of U.S. declaratory strategic policy from the end of World War II to the present. Specifically, it focuses on those particular environmental threats, constraints, and resources that were fundamental to the development of a nuclear strategy for each time period. The same kind of analysis is used to examine four alternative future security environments. Specific nuclear strategies are then developed for each alternative world scenar io . The U.S. Navy's Maritime Strategy, especially the nuclear component, is presented as an example of the strategy development process. Finally, the process of strategic planning in the military and long-range planning in general are discussed.