Analysis of a Lance missile platoon using a semi-Markov chain

Abstract

This thesis develops a combat effectiveness model for the Lance missile system. The survivability and ability to accomplish the mission for a Lance missile launch platoon depends upon enemy capabilities, platoon configuration, missile reliability and many other tangible factors. The changing status of a launch platoon is modeled using a semi-Markov chain with transient and absorbing states. Expected number of missiles fired prior to absorption and expected time to absorption are the measures of effectiveness used to analyze the effect of scenario input. Sensitivity analyses are conducted on the parameters of platoon configuration, missile reliability and fire point usage.