Effects of N-AFMET on enlisted first-term attrition
Powers, Rebecca J.
Eitelberg, Mark J.
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This thesis focuses on the Navy-Air Force Medical Evaluation Test or N-AFMET, a three-phased, psychological screening program for new recruits, initiated by the Navy in fiscal 1992. Multivariate models are developed to estimate the effectiveness of N-AFMET in identifying a recruit's likelihood of failing to complete the first-term of enlistment due to a psychological disorder. The logit regression equations and probabilities are modeled from two files held by the Defense Manpower data Center: the Defense Cohort Accession files for fiscal 1990, 1991, and 1992; and N-AFMET outcome for recruits who entered the Navy in fiscal 1992. The 1992 recruits were followed through September 1994 to analyze differences between those who remained in the Navy, those who were dismissed as a result of N-AFMET, and those who neither finished their enlistment nor were screened out by N-AFMET. The findings reveal that, in fiscal 1992, the N-AFMET screening program successfully identified a number of recruits who would have likely failed to finish their term of enlistment. However, a significant proportion of personnel identified as "Returned to Duty" continued to leave the Navy due to psychological problems. It is recommended that the 1992 recruits be trucked for an additional twelve months and that similar studies be undertaken to follow N-AFMET- screened recruits who entered the Navy in 1993 and 1994
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