Bluffing with a pair of deuces the downside of successful deception
Sharpe, Richard R.
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This thesis examines two examples of strategic deception campaigns - interwar Germany and modern Iraq - to determine the necessity for a clear framework, to decide how deception campaigns might meet overall national strategic goals. With the mindset of a pending overhaul in the way that the Department of Defense conducts business, understanding the importance of deception will become increasingly vital as the military becomes lighter and leaner. With such a change in the makeup of the force, old conventions of warfare, requiring a numerical advantage, may have to be forsaken in favor of techniques traditionally considered unconventional. By developing such a doctrine now, the challenge can be met before it actually arises. The key to doing so is examining past successes and failures and learning from history's mistakes. Using the DoD framework as a basis, it is possible to use the analysis of these case studies to develop a planning method to mitigate many of the hurdles experienced in these campaigns, from planning and execution to termination.