Predicting Coast Guard enlisted attrition
Blakemore, Douglas Allen
Read, Robert R.
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This study examines enlisted attrition behavior for the U.S. Coast Guard and develops a model that projects attrition figures. Survival analysis techniques are used to analyze the empirical attrition behaviors associated with an individuals sex, race, marital status, and military occupational skill (MOS). In this study males tend to have higher survival probabilities than females, non-caucasians higher than caucasians, and married persons higher than those not married. Aviation MOSs have the highest survival probabilities and technical MOSs have the lowest. Modelled survivor functions are developed for two paygrades because each contain small personnel inventories. These modelled survivor functions do not fit the data as well as desired but are nonetheless used pending the development of sharper alternatives. Finally a counting model based on the Binomial Distribution is developed that projects monthly enlisted attrition figures.
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