A comparison of high-latitude ionospheric propagation predictions from Advanced Prophet 4.0 with measured data

Abstract

Progress in computers during the past two decades has sparked the development of many useful high frequency (HF) ionospheric propagation prediction codes. The high-latitude (polar) ionosphere still remains as the most difficult propagation region to predict. A 'Non centric database of collected high-latitude signal and noise measurements was obtained during 1988 and 1989 by the University of Leicester, UK The Advanced Prophet 4.0 HF Ionospheric Propagation Prediction Code was exercised and compared to a portion of the 'Non centric database, for a transmitter at Clyde River, Canada and a receiver at Leicester, U.K. The Prophet predictions were better during winter months than during summer months. Overall, 70% of the signal strength data from Prophet 4.0 were between -20 dB and +20 dB error, compared to the measured data.