A comparison of high latitude ionospheric propagation predictions from IONCAP-PC 2.5 with measured data
Tsolekas, Marcos D.
Adler, Richard W.
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Prediction of ionospheric propagation in polar regions tends to be difficult because of an increased number and variety of local ionospheric disturbances. Various programs have been developed to model ionospheric propagation, and one such program, IONCAP-PC 2.5, is tested for accuracy over a transpolar communications link, using noncentric measured reference data obtained from the Univercity of Leicester. The field strength values predicted by IONCAP-PC 2.5 are extended to take into consideration the specific antenna designs and predicted noise levels are also calculated for the environments involved. The resulting signal-to-noise ratio is compared with the observed signal-to-noise ratio and a statistical analysis is performed on the resulting errors. It is concluded that IONCAP-PC 2.5 predicts the signal-to-noise ratio with an error of less than 10 dB for 50% of the data. However, significant errors occur when predicting extreme values for this noncentric data.
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